Islam In The UK: The Numbers

, August 04, 2009

Islam in the UK: The Numbers

by Baron Bodissey

 

Free Hal, whose first guest-essay was posted here a couple of weeks ago, returns with an article about a frequently-discussed subject: the actual Muslim population in the UK.

UK Immigration
Determining a reliable figure for the number of Muslims in Britain is difficult for two reasons. First, the topic is considered impolite, politically incorrect, and generally off-limits, so that official statistics are hard to come by. Second, there are so many illegal immigrants into the UK that determining actual numbers would be all but impossible in any case.

But Hal has done his homework, and draws some conclusions based on the available data.


Islam in the UK: The Numbers
by Free Hal

How big is the Islamic population of Britain, and how fast it is growing?

Britain is generally considered have a population approximately 3% Muslim (by 2001 figures). France (10%), Netherlands (7%), Belgium (8%), and Sweden (5%) have higher percentage Islamic populations.

These are the general figures. But, being a sordid subject, neither it nor its implications are frequently analysed. 1.6 million has been the official UK figure for so long that the implication is that it won’t change much.

Talk of the growth of Islamic numbers in the UK is taboo. This in itself is evidence that the utopia of tolerance is shared by few outside official circles. No-one censors the mundane and irrelevant.

However, that figure is itself unreliable, and the growth rate has been fast, before and since.

And the more you analyse the figures, the more shocking they are.

There are two points to establish: the base figure, and the growth rate.

The base figure

The Office of National Statistics 2001 Census figures state is that there were 1.6 million Muslims in Britain, out of a population of 49.1 million. That figure has been criticized as artificially low because the section of the form asking about religion wasn’t compulsory (“10. What is your religion? This question is voluntary”). So people will have completed the census but left that part blank. It would certainly be interesting to see how big a proportion of the people who completed that section is represented by that 1.6 million. It will also be interesting to see if the question remains voluntary in 2011.

Fortunately, this official study can be supplemented by piecing together unofficial — but still liberal establishment in funding and tone — studies. You just have to root around to find them, and then spend a lot of time joining the dots. Their findings are surprisingly consistent:
- – – - – – – – -

1.   The Guardian reported a figure of 1.8 million in 2002: The Guardian, June 17, 2002, ‘British Muslims’ series — A map of Muslim Britain, Appendix A, referred to in the George Soros’s ‘Open Society Institute’ report, ‘The Situation of Muslims in the UK’ (pdf). This figure chimes with the base figure of 1.7 million in 2001 plus 6.5% p.a. growth: 1.7 million + 6.5% = 1.8105 million.
2.   The Financial Times, in January 23, 2002, quoted Professor M Anwar, head of the Centre for Research in Ethnic Relations, University of Warwick, that there were 1.8 million Muslims in the UK. This figure chimes with 1.7 million in 2001: 1.8 million — 6.5% = 1.683 million.
3.   Analysis commissioned by the MCB itself in 2001, based on the 1999 electoral roll, totalled the British Muslim population at 1.7 million.
4.   In 1997 The Runnymede Trust, “Islamophobia — a challenge for us all“ put the figure at 1.5 million. This figure works out to be roughly 1.8 million by 2000, given a 6.5% growth rate.

These figures correlate remarkably closely on a growth rate of about 6.5% a year: conservatively, 1.6 million in 2000 and about 1.7 million in 2001.

Plus the illegals.

Illegals are necessarily hard to count, let alone break down by religion, but the current official estimate is at least 750,000. If we put half the number of failed asylum seekers and people overstaying their visas as being Muslim (almost certainly a significant underestimate) then that swells the number of UK Muslims by 375,000.

This puts the number of Muslims in Britain, reasonably conservatively, at about 1.9 million in 2000.

Growth rate

The base figure is not nearly so important as the rate of growth. This is the alarming part, and the figures are consistent.

Whilst even commentators the most concerned about the growth of Islam in the UK put its growth in the UK at about 3%, the real growth rate, due largely to high birthrates and the importation of spouses and other relatives, is more than double that.

It has been for almost 6 decades.

See:

Number of Muslims in Britain
In 1951 the Muslim population in Britain was about 23,000.
Ten years later, it was about 82,000 and by 1971 it was 369,000.
At present, there are an estimated 1.8 million Muslims in the UK, making Muslims the largest religious minority in Britain.

(Sources simply “Lancashire Mosques Organisation”, and “International The News. Newspaper”.)

See also the Hudson Institute:

British Islam

To analyze the nature and extent of Islamist ideological penetration in Britain, it is important to understand the demographic features of British Islam. Britain did not measure religion until the 2001 Census, and even then one’s religious affiliation was only a voluntary question. Britain did however measure migrants’ countries of origin and from these figures it is thought that the 1991 Muslim population was around 1.25 million. The 2001 Census indicated that 1.6 million people in England and Wales and just over 42,000 in Scotland identified themselves as Muslim. The voluntary nature of the question is likely to have led to a low figure and it is now thought that there are around 2 million.

Ceri Peach, “The Muslim population of Great Britain”, Ethnic and Racial Studies, estimated the number of British Muslims in 1991, perhaps conservatively, to be about 1,000,000.

Analysing these figures, the number of Muslims appears to have risen roughly as follows:

  • 13.5% p.a. between 1951 to 1961;
  • 16% p.a. between 1961 and 1971;
  • 5.5% p.a. between 1971 and 1991;
  • 7.5% p.a. between 1991 and 2001.

(It is possible that the acceleration between 1991 and 2001 was due to cheaper air travel, plus a general increase in immigration and asylum applications. However, I suspect that Peach’s estimate of 1 million British Muslims in 1991 was a slight underestimate and that the rate of increase has been about 6% to 7% (say 6.5%) from 1991 to 2001.)

6.5% is a very rapid rate of increase: doubling every 12 years. It is not hard to work out the implications of such a projected trend.

The different studies, quoted above, carried out between 1997 and 2002, corroborate each other on the basis of such a growth trend. The totals are consistent if one applies a 6.5% p.a. growth rate — please see above.

6.5% per year is also borne out by the most recent, if sensationally presented, story: “Muslim population ‘rising 10 times faster than rest of society’” at Times Online, January 30, 2009.

The numbers behind the headline further substantiate this already apparent growth rate:

The Muslim population in Britain has grown by more than 500,000 to 2.4 million in just four years, according to official research collated for The Times.

[…]

Experts said that the increase was attributable to immigration, a higher birthrate and conversions to Islam during the period of 2004-2008, when the data was gathered.

The growth from 1.9 million to 2.4 million in the 4 years from 2004 to 2008 is a growth rate of just over 6% per year, not including illegals, i.e. a doubling every 12 years. Plus illegals.

Implications

Switch on your calculator and enter the figure of 1.9 million in 2000. Then multiply it by 106.5%. And then multiply that by 106.5%. And again, and again…

By 2030 Britain is 20% Islamic (assuming the total British population stays at 2001 levels).

By 2045 the figure is 51%.

WARNING: THIS IS A PROJECTION. A PROJECTION IS NOT A PREDICTION.

As an example of meaning of this warning, read about the growth of bacteria on a Petri dish, which should, judging by the first few hours, fill the entire laboratory within a few days, but never does. Or the 1960’s projection that ever cheaper fuel sources would result in sources of power ‘too cheap to meter’.

Trends are never rigid, and it is folly to use straight-line projections in a curved universe.

But it would be equal folly to assume that the only possible change in the trend is downward. Or to assume Micawber-like, that ‘something will turn up’. That trend — almost doubling every decade — has continued for the 50 years up to 2001. And then up to 2008.

Why will it stop?

If there is no good reason, then you should run the numbers, and ask whether it matters. 

     

Baron Bodissey | 8/04/2009 08:46:00 PM

 

Links to this post:

  DYSPEPSIA GENERATION » Blog Archive » Islam in the UK: The Numbers   Read it. How Britain is turning into Londonistan under its Labour government. This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 5th, 2009 at 08:38 and is filed under Dystopia Watch. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS
posted by Tim of Angle @ 8/05/2009 10:38 AM  

Create a Link 

Comments:

 
To add a link in a comment, use this format:
<a href=”http://mywebsite.com”>My Title</a>

Blogger 4Symbols said…At a certain point the increment of population becomes almost irrelevent, the factor then becomes jihadist density within that population, where the threat lies not in the headcount but in the commitment to jihad – the U.K. has crossed that population threshold by millions.

8/05/2009 5:53 AM   Blogger DP111 said…Patrick Sookhdeo estimates the present number of Muslims in the UK to be around 4 million. This figure includes all Muslims – legal and illegals, as most of the illegals are not going to go back.

We are in a state of war on many fronts. Nothing is predictable in such a state.

8/05/2009 5:56 AM   Blogger GOK said…Another way to count them is to look at the number of mosques today compared to 10 years ago, 20 years ago etc. This should provide a FAR more accurate count by extrapollating. If there were 50,000 muslims in 1970 with 100 mosquess, but today there are 1500 mosques, then it`s pretty easy to work out.

Remember that Mulsims are taught to hide their numbers and use Taqiyya when they live amongst the infidel.

You can be CERTAIN that the numner of muslims who actually put their relegion down in the census was somewhere between 50% and 70%. There is no way more than 70% of them put their religion down – given that they are instructed to hide their numbers, and I wouldnt be suprised if it`s a low as 50%.

If that`s the case, the UK will have serious problems starting in about 15 years.

8/05/2009 6:59 AM   Blogger Solkhar said…To correctly look at numbers the first thing is to avoid those who may be (correctly or not) tainted with motives. Thus the Reverend Dr Sookhdeo’s opinions should not be taken into.

Avoid also counting on assets such as Mosques, that comes down to money available and getting building permits. Considering the British Government has caved in to just about every radical’s demand, there are more mosques and centres.

Another thought is this, that the sensus did not make compulsory the “religion” box, Muslims are inclined to tick it. Having said that, those that do not tick it are more than likely agnostic or uninterested and inactive so they really do not count.

Certainly there is admissions by the UK Government that there is a large illegal population, but that is not soley Muslim so again, I would not take that into consideration.

4symbols did get the correct factor right, it is the percentage of radicals and their infrastructure that is the key here. The radicals who support the claim that there is a jihad against the west and have sway over their communities – via poisoning them lies about life, saying they have a right to demands that are not even acceptable in the real Muslim World etc, – these need to be not only counted but identified and dealt with.

8/05/2009 9:39 AM

Gates of Vienna
About these ads

7 responses to “Islam In The UK: The Numbers

  1. 30 years ago…1979.

    Some countries, certainly, have already taken steps to alleviate problems. Belgium and Austria, for example, now officially recognize Islam as a religion. But the bulk of Europe’s Muslims do not live in Belgium and Austria. Of a total of 5.4 million, 1.9 million live in France, 1.5 million in West Germany, 1 million in Britain, 500,000 in Italy, 350,000 in the Benelux countries, 40,000 in Scandinavia, 25,000 in Spain and some 5,000 each in Austria, Portugal and Switzerland.

  2. Number of Muslims in Britain
    In 1951 the Muslim population in Britain was about 23,000.
    Ten years later, it was about 82,000 and by 1971 it was 369,000.
    At present, there are an estimated 1.8 million Muslims in the UK, making Muslims the largest religious minority in Britain.

    (Sources simply “Lancashire Mosques Organisation”, and “International The News. Newspaper”.)

    I’D TRUST THE SAUDI ARTICLE MORE……………….THEY DON’T BOW TO THE UK GOV!!

  3. The true numbers will always be hidden away because the Truth is to difficult to face. The number of public demonstations against Islam will increase people are going to get arrested, hurt, killed, riots are coming to every city as people wake up and see the truth. I can see no other future for us or any alternative

    • I believe the Arab site that states that one million were here in 1979,
      We can’t move anywhere in England without bumping into muslims, that should be our guide,
      Well. the lads in Luton are leading the way, with the football supporters finally waking up, an American years ago said, he could see that one day it would be they that save this country.
      The poliliars deserve tar and feathering for what they have a wrought about in this country, God willing we shall see that day arrive.

  4. I know you will be aware of this radio interview with Lionheart in which he equips himself well enough even under intense pressure to misrepresent himself http://lionheartuk.blogspot.com/2009/08/edl-talksport-radio-interview.html

  5. Pingback: sub-human trash allowed to remain in UK. - Page 3 - Politics & Current Affairs Forum

  6. Pingback: Muslims multiply faster than rats. - Page 4 - Politics & Current Affairs Forum

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s